How Right (or Wrong) Were My 2018 Travel Predictions?

Good afternoon everyone.  In mid January 2018, I wrote My Unlikely, But Entertaining 2018 Travel Predictions.  I did not look at that post until yesterday, so it was fun to look at the predictions I had made.  I will go through my 2018 predictions and see how well I did.  Since my memory is not that great, please correct me if I am wrong on any of these.  In a few days, I will share my probably equally as unlikely but equally as entertaining 2019 travel predictions, so check back for that post.  Without further ado, here were my 2018 predictions and the results:

Airlines

  • After the Virgin America merger, Alaska Airlines will add new routes to Mexico, Canada, and the Caribbean (Correct! According to Alaska Airlines’ website, they did add several new routes of Mexico City from SFO, LAX, and SAN.  Unfortunately, there were no new routes to Canada or the Caribbean.)
  • Delta Airlines will introduce cash and miles award tickets, then American Airlines and United Airlines will follow suit (Wrong!  Looks like none of the big 3 airlines added “cash + miles” award tickets.)
  • Southwest Airlines will increase their Transfarency by automatically keeping track of travel funds in each account (Wrong!  You still need to manually track your travel funds.)
  • JetBlue will add new routes along the West Coast and maybe to Hawaii (Wrong! JetBlue did add new routes along the East Coast, but nothing new on the West Coast.)
  • Singapore Airlines will allow you to book United Airlines awards online (Correct!  Singapore Airlines added the ability to book award flights on United Airlines in February.)
  • British Airways will bring back the 4,500 Avios award price in the United States (Wrong!  Sadly, the 4,500 British Airways Avios pricing band is still not available in the US.)

Hotels

  • Hilton and Hyatt will announce a merger (Wrong!  No merger between Hilton and Hyatt.)
  • Wyndham and Choice will announce a merger (Wrong!  No merger between Wyndham and Choice.)
  • Club Carlson Radisson Rewards and Accor will announce a merger (Wrong!  No merger between Radisson Rewards and Accor.)
  • Marriott will update their travel packages program (Correct!  But it looks like most of the travel packages are worth less than before the merger.)

Credit Cards

  • Citi will get a hotel credit card after the loss of Hilton (Wrong!  Citi did not launch a new hotel credit card.)
  • American Express will update their 5 credit card limit to 8 credit cards (Wrong!  But I think there is a “limit” of 6-7 credit cards if you had Citi Hilton Reserve Credit Cards convert into American Express Hilton Ascend Credit Cards.)
  • Discover will introduce a premium credit card with an annual fee (Wrong!  Discover did not launch a new credit card with an annual fee.)
  • Chase will add a new airline and hotel transfer partner (Correct!  Chase added JetBlue, Iberia, and Aer Lingus as transfer partners.  Sadly, no hotel transfer partners were added.)
  • Bank of America will lose Alaska Airlines as a credit card partner (Wrong!  Bank of America and Alaska Airlines are still credit card partners.)
  • US Bank will no longer need separate logins for personal and business credit cards (Wrong!  I still have separate logins for US Bank personal and business credit card accounts.)

Travel

  • More Centurion Lounges and Priority Pass partners (Correct! I believe Houston is the newest Centurion Lounge, but there are several new lounges coming soon to Denver (DEN), New York (JFK), Los Angeles (LAX), London (LHR), and Charlotte (CLT).  Priority Pass has also added many new restaurant partners.)
  • More low cost airlines with routes to/from the United States (Correct!  I believe WOW, LEVEL, Norwegian, and French Bee added new routes to/from the US.)
  • More international airports will accept TSA PreCheck (Wrong!  I don’t think any international airports added TSA PreCheck – but that would be awesome!)
  • One airline or hotel will completely end their loyalty program (Wrong! Unless you include mergers of Virgin America to Alaska Airlines or SPG to Marriott.)

Based on my results, it looks like I got 6 predictions correct and 14 predictions wrong, for a success rate of 30%.  Not bad for me, but I am no Nostradamus!  Please leave a comment below if you have any questions about my predictions or the results.  I look forward to thinking and writing about my 2019 travel predictions.  Until then, have a great and safe New Years everyone!

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